Group M has forecast digital advertising to account for at least 17% of the total global market in 2011, up 1% from its December forecast.
The firm also predicted that online spend is set to top $100bn in 2012 on 15%-16% annual growth.
However, Group M has dropped its overall forecast for global advertising spend in 2011 from 5.8% to 4.8%, with digital expected to top $100bn next year.
The WPP-owned group which include media agencies Mediacom, Mindshare, MEC and Maxus said that spending this year will hit $506bn, a 4.8% increase on the $483bn last year, but less than predicted earlier.
The Japan earthquake and tsunami and political upheaval in the Middle East is being blamed for the downward spend revision for this year.
The group said 2012 ad spend will rise 6.8% on this year to $504.3bn, sparked by spending on the Olympics and US election campaigns.
For Japan, GroupM is predicting that a 3% growth in ad spend will reverse to a 5% decline, or a difference of $4bn.
Its report, ‘This year, next year’ also predicts that digital advertising will account for 17% of global advertising this year, an increase of 1% on its forecast in December 2010. It says digital advertising is increasing by between 15-16% a year and will exceed $100bn in 2012.
GroupM futures director Adam Smith said: “Digital advertising spending accounts for 20 percent and more of measured advertising in countries where it is most developed, but it still has real growth potential even in those nations. A recurring theme from such countries is the commercial utility of behavioural targeting and web video, even among traditional ‘brand’ or ‘awareness’ advertisers.”
Across Asia Pacific, GroupM predicts a rise in spend of 6.2% this year, rising to 10.3% in 2012.