This month’s latest trends in digital: Household spending falls for first time in 10 years | Smartphones drive mobile adult content | Personal navigation on the rise | Customer support | Economic cyber terror | Indian mobile data | Global spam trends | Xmas greeting cards | Festive fraudsters
Household spending falls for first time in 10 years
UK households spent less on clothing, transport and mortgages last year than in 2008 according to new figures released today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Family Spending, the annual report from ONS on household expenditure in the UK, found that in 2009 the average weekly household spend was £455.00, compared with £471.00 in 2008. It is the first drop within the last ten years. Spending was highest on transport at £58.40 per week though this fell by 8 per cent on the previous year, with half (£29.30) going towards running costs.
Average expenditure levels in each of the next two top categories were very similar. Recreation and Culture fell slightly to £57.90 in 2009 from 60.10 in 2008, despite higher spending on items such as leisure classes, sports admissions, cinemas, theatres and concerts. Expenditure on housing, fuel and power increased to £57.30 in 2009 from £53.00 in 2008.
Expenditure on Clothing and Footwear was £20.90 per week, slightly lower than the previous year and continuing the long-term fall in this category to the lowest figures recorded under current methods. Similarly, expenditure on Household Goods and Services such as furniture and appliances also hit a long-term low, falling from £30.10 in 2008 to £27.90 in 2009.
Of the £52.20 average weekly spend on food and non-alcoholic drink, almost three-quarters (72 per cent, £37.70 per week) was purchased from large supermarket chains, a similar proportion to the previous year.
Spending on package holidays fell from £14.70 per week in 2008 to £13.20 in 2009 with £12.30 spent on package holidays abroad, £1.30 less than the previous year.
Giles Horsfield, ONS statistician and editor of the report said: “This is the first annual decline in average UK household spend since the current method of recording was introduced in 2001-02, with higher expenditure on some housing related costs such as rent, electricity and gas offset by lower spending on mortgages.“
“Lower spending on diesel and fuel contributed to lower expenditure on transport, but reductions were also seen on vehicle purchases and public transport.”
“It’s interesting to note that expenditure fell again on clothing which took it to a record low under current methods, for the third year in a row.
Spending also fell on household goods and package holidays, but held up on sports admissions, cinema, theatre and concerts.”
UK Regions
Overall, average household expenditure in the UK was £461.70 per week for the years 2007–09 combined. There were five regions in which expenditure over this period was higher than the UK average: expenditure was highest in London (£552.30), followed by the South East (£523.90 per week) the East (£487.70), Northern Ireland (£485.80) and the South West (£474.10).
Spending was lowest among households in the North East (£387.20), Wales (£396.10), and Yorkshire and the Humber (£400.70).
London households’ high spending was partly due to the housing, fuel and power category (£80.10 per week) compared with the UK national average of £54.00 per week.
Households in rural areas had higher overall expenditure (£500.00 per week) than those in urban areas (£450.20 per week). This was reflected in expenditure on transport, where spending was highest (£75.70 in rural areas and £57.00 in urban areas), and recreation and culture (£65.80 in rural areas and £56.40 in urban areas). However, expenditure on the housing, fuel and power category was slightly higher in urban areas (£54.90 per week) than in rural areas (£52.00 per week).
Smartphones & Low Cost Data Drive Traffic to Mobile Adult Paysites, with Subscribers Forecast to Reach 35 million by 2015
The surge in consumer smartphone adoption, allied to low cost data bundles, has led to a sharp rise in the number of consumers surfing mobile adult sites, a new report from Juniper Research has found. This has translated into a marked increase in subscriptions to mobile adult paysites, with the number subscribing to such sites expected to exceed 35 million worldwide by 2015.
The Mobile Adult report observed that the consumer smartphone boom had indirectly resulted in the adult industry generating substantial revenues in the US for the first time. The market had previously been constrained by carrier reluctance to offer adult content on-portal, but that direct to consumer (D2C) adult sites were profiting as consumers were surfing the Internet via the mobile in ever increasing numbers.
Furthermore, the availability of a strong mobile revenue stream has come at a critical point for the adult industry. According to report author Dr Windsor Holden, “The opportunity offered by mobile couldn’t be more timely, given that sales from DVDs have collapsed while online paysites have also lost customers and revenues as a result of the proliferation of tube sites.”
Conversely, the imposition of stringent regulations prohibiting access to remote adult content in a number of Asian markets will adversely impact revenue growth within that region, while many European markets have also experienced a fall in sales as traffic to on-portal adult content has diminished.
Indeed, the report cautioned that the widespread availability of free content on thumbnail gallery posts (TGPs) would mean that revenue generation from casual users would in future be extremely limited and that providers should focus on catering for customers seeking high-value niche content. It also stressed the importance of customer retention, highlighting the fact that many mobile providers have focused almost exclusively on traffic generation. The Mobile Adult Video Whitepaper is available to view from the Juniper website together with further details of the study ‘Mobile Adult Strategies: Downloads, Video Chat, Apps & Messaging 2010-2015.
www.juniperresearch.com.
Personal Navigation sites to peak next yearAccording to a new research report from the analyst firm Berg Insight, global shipments of Personal Navigation Devices (PNDs) will peak at about 42 million units in 2011 and gradually decline thereafter. Growing shipments in markets such as Brazil, China, India and Russia are not likely to compensate for the decline in Europe and North America. In mature markets where the installed base of PNDs is already high, the device category is facing increasing competition from smartphones and low-cost in-dash navigation systems. However, aftermarket navigation systems will be the largest segment for several years to come and many customers, especially in Europe and North America, are likely to use more than one navigation capable device for different occasions in the future.
PND vendors are increasingly looking at new features and value-added services to resist slower growth and increasing competition. Vendors are for instance adding larger screens and cellular connectivity to new models to persuade customers to upgrade their existing PNDs. Berg Insight forecasts that more than 80 percent of PNDs shipped worldwide in 2015 will have integrated cellular connectivity. “Sales of replacement devices to existing customers now account for about one third of shipments in mature markets”, said André Malm, Senior Analyst, Berg Insight. He adds that customers looking for a new PND typically want a larger screen and new services such as traffic information or speed camera warnings. “Vendors need to communicate the advantages of connected services, such as better traffic information, in order to educate potential customers and stimulate demand”, commented Mr Malm.
www.berginsight.com
Start-ups are turning online for the ‘human’ side of business support
New business owners are increasingly looking for support to overcome the practical barriers to running their own companies. So far this year, more than 15,000 requests for advice have been answered by volunteer business mentors on horsesmouth.co.uk, the UK’s leading business mentoring site. Demand is increasing with 50% more requests than were seen at the start of the economic downturn in 2008.
Horsesmouth estimates that one in three of these requests now has a personal context that conventional business support services are not equipped to deal with. In these challenging economic times horsesmouth has seen an increase in requests for help where personal challenges are impacting on a businesses’ resilience. Issues being discussed range from a lack of confidence and poor time management through to dilemmas about childcare, debt, relationships, family and health.
www.horsesmouth.co.uk
http://www.yellgroup.com
Rise of economic cyber-terror
When it comes to dangerous Web threats, the only constant is change and gone are the days of predictable attack vectors. Instead, modern blended threats such as Aurora, Stuxnet, and Zeus infiltrate organizations through a variety of coordinated tactics, usually a combination of two or more. Phishing, compromised websites, and social networking are carefully coordinated to steal confidential data, because in the world of cybercrime, content equals cash. And, as the Websense® 2010 Threat Report illustrates, the latest tactics have now moved to a political—and nationalistic—stage.
These conclusions are based on the analysis of Websense Security Labs ™ researchers, who rely on their ThreatSeeker Network which every hour scans more than 40 million websites for malicious code and nearly 10 million emails for unwanted content and malicious code. The 2010 evidence and metrics suggest that cybercriminals and their blended attacks are having a field day taking advantage of security gaps left open by legacy technologies like firewalls, antivirus, and simple URL blockers.
Significant findings from the Websense 2010 Threat Report affirm that while broad threats continue, focused, targeted attacks are on the rise. Findings include:
• 111.4 percent increase in the number of malicious websites from 2009 to 2010
• 79.9 percent of websites with malicious code were legitimate sites that have been compromised
• 52 percent of data-stealing attacks were conducted over the Web
• 34 percent of malicious Web/HTTP attacks included data-stealing code
• 89.9 percent of all unwanted emails in circulation during this period contained links to spam sites and/or malicious websites
• The United States and China continued to be the top two countries hosting crimeware and receiving stolen data during 2010; the Netherlands has found its way into the top five
• Searching for breaking news represented a higher risk (22.4 percent) than searching for objectionable content (21.8 percent)
• 23 percent of real-time search results on entertainment lead to a malicious link
• 40 percent of all Facebook status updates have links and 10 percent of those links are either spam or malicious
http://www.websense.com/content/ProductResources.aspx/?cmpid=prnr
http://www.websense.com.
Indian Sub-Continent Mobile Data Revenues to Reach $10 billion by 2015
Operators are seeking to offset sharp decreases in voice ARPU in the Indian Sub-Continent by focusing on their mobile data strategies, creating tremendous opportunities in the Content & Application sector. In a new study Juniper forecasts that operator billed data revenues will increase from $4 billion in 2010 to $10 billion in 2015.
Juniper found that whilst mobile content service revenues are currently dominated by the Music sector, User Generated Content will in fact surpass Music to generate the highest revenue by 2015. Other entertainment categories like Infotainment will also grow significantly over the period.
According to report author Nitin Smitha, “With operators following the App store concept and launching their own App stores, the mobile content sector is set for substantial development, meaning the amount of content available to consumers will rapidly multiply; hence increased consumption and revenue.”
The new Mobile Indian Sub-Continent report also observed that growth would be further bolstered as 3G deployment gathers momentum, although noting that adoption will be significantly constrained by handset costs.
Other findings from the Juniper report include:
• The Indian Sub-Continent mobile user base is expected to rise from 814 million in 2010 to nearly 1.3 billion in 2015
• Blended ARPU levels are expected to decline steadily across the region, although the sharp fall in voice ARPU will be partially offset by the steady increase from data services
• India will provide the largest share of cumulative regional revenues over the forecast period, followed by Bangladesh
The new report provides in-depth coverage and forecasts for the five Indian Sub-Continent markets – Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. It also includes regional analysis and forecasts for mobile content and applications (advertising, TV, gambling, games, UGC, music and adult content) and mobile commerce (payments, money transfer, banking and ticketing).
A Mobile Indian Sub Continent video whitepaper, and further details of the study ‘Indian Sub-Continent Mobile Market: Commerce, Content & Applications 2010-2015’ is available at www.juniperresearch.com.
UK businesses blame poor broadband for impeding their growth
A study conducted by BE Broadband has found that two thirds of businesses believe poor broadband connectivity is impeding the growth of the UK economy. Businesses suffer when slow internet connection prevents them from using collaborative applications and cloud based services and the study found that 72% of people believe reliable, consistent broadband would make their business more competitive and efficient.
Around a third of the UK is currently due to miss out on super-fast broadband because it is not regarded as economically possible to offer services in rural areas. In the meantime millions of businesses and homes are left to suffer.
Poor broadband hinders business capabilities if they are outside the best areas for connectivity and businesses in rural areas simply cannot compete with businesses with high-speed broadband as they are not able to use the same applications and resources.
As BTannounces its 50MB fibre-optic broadband product entitled BT Infinity and Virgin announce their 100MB service, the consumers and businesses located in major towns and cities should be jumping for joy at the prospect of super-fast broadband at their home or business. However those that live in rural areas sigh once again at the prospect of the digital divide widening even further. Rural areas will be stuck on 2MB max download with the rest of the country on 8MB and soon rising to 100MB.
Mark Seemann, CTO for Outsourcery said, “Many SMEs are struggling with the broadband they are being offered. The fact is that high speed broadband is becoming more and more vital for consumers and businesses, and this doesn’t change whether you live and work in a rural area or city – it’s critcally important. Therefore the issue must be solved if we are to close the digital divide, and create equal access to high speed broadband for all”.
http://partners.outsourcery.co.uk/
Global Spam Trends
In 2011, spam will become more culturally and linguistically diverse. The use of English in spam will fall from approximately 95% of all spam to below 90% driven by economic growth and broadband adoption in emerging economies. For instance, spammers will target Brazil with more than 40 percent of spam in Portuguese.
Portuguese and Spanish will become some of the most popular languages used in spam other than English. We expect Italy to receive 20-25% of spam in Italian, France to receive 15-20% French language spam and Germany will find 10-15% of its spam in German. China will receive 10-15% of spam in Chinese and spam in Japan will be 10-15% in Japanese. Arabic language spam will increase in the Middle East, for example Saudi Arabia will receive 10% of its spam in Arabic.
Likewise, as the internet population in East African countries continues to rise, we predict that spam from these countries, such as Kenya will increase sending up to twice as much spam in 2011 as in 2010 driven by botnet domination. Spam sent from Africa will account for almost 5% of all spam by the end of 2011.
Contributions to the global spam landscape will also continue to shift geographically. The amount of spam sent from European countries will increase to 40-45% of all spam. Much of the shift will be due to an increase in spam from Eastern European countries, from the current 50% of spam from Europe to more than 70% in 2011. Spam sent from South America which will account for 10-15% of all spam. North America will remain on par with around 10% of spam sent from the region, and Asia will remain relatively unchanged with around 35% of spam sent from the region.
Www.MessageLabs.com
Decline in Christmas greetings on the cards for 2010
They are lining the shelves and should soon be lining our mantle pieces, but latest research from Mintel reveals there may be a little less writing this year, as sales of Christmas cards are declining. Over the past four years, there has been a dramatic decrease in the number of Brits buying Christmas cards as while in 2006 as many as 84% of us sent a Christmas card, this has dropped to just 73% in 2009.
The value of Christmas card sales has also declined. Over the past five years, sales of Christmas cards have decreased by 5% from £272 million in 2005 to an estimated £259 million in 2010. The setback in came during 2008 (dropping to £266 million), hard on the heels of the credit crunch when consumers gave a knee-jerk reaction to Christmas cards sending and trimmed back their spending. Volume sales are expected to be roughly the same in 2010 as 2009, but consumers will cut back spending. Today, as many as 78% of women send Christmas cards compared to less than seven in ten (67%) of men.
But it is not the whole greetings card market which has suffered. Indeed, sales of “everyday” cards (including birthdays) and “spring cards” have increased by 5% and 6% respectively. Furthermore, the popularity of sending birthday cards has increased slightly, rising from 90% in 2006 to 92% in 2009. Today, Birthdays (92%), Christmas (73%) and Mothers Day (44%) are the top three card buying occasions. This year, Mothers Day overtook Anniversaries (36%) to become the third most popular card sending occasion. Dads also seem to be growing in popularity in terms of card sending. While the number of people sending cards on Mothers Day remains the same at just over four in ten Brits (42%), Dad is now more likely to be the lucky recipient of a Fathers Day card, with the number of Brits sending a Father’s Day card increasing from 32% in 2006 to 35% in 2010.
Overall, consumer spending on greeting cards has been flat for several years, and is expected to fall by 1.3% in 2010 from £1.5 billion in 2009 to £1.48 billion in 2010. There has been a polarisation, with growing demand for special cards as well as lower-priced options. By the end of the year the average Brit will have spent £24 on cards, and this year we will send just under 1.5 billion cards. There are also warning signs that some consumers are beginning to object to paying too much for a greeting card. Although a third (34%) of consumers believe that the style of the card is more important than price, four in ten (40%) feel that cards are too expensive. One in five (21%) consumers has cut back their card spending compared with a year or two ago. Although money is tight, goodwill remains in the nation’s heart. One fifth (21%) of consumers try to buy charity cards whenever they can and a quarter (24%) are willing to spend more if it’s for charity.
Finally, it seems that the digital revolution has not overtaken ‘real’ cards for Brits just yet. While in 2010, seven in ten adults have a computer at home, making it easy for people to stay in touch, it seems it is underexploited for greetings as only 14% of home internet users sent e-greetings in 2010. Indeed, Mintel’s research reveals only 12% of consumers send e-cards or texts as well as greeting cards, just 8% use automatic reminders and 5% use paid for e-card companies.
www.mintel.com
Festive fraudsters
Security experts are warning Christmas consumers to be more cautious than ever of online fraud as shopping on the web hits an all time high. With 25 days left before Christmas only 44% of shoppers say they regularly check bills and financial statements against receipts. Average online sales in 2009 were worth £50 billion. The average e-retail basket value is worth £144 and online sales have grown by 13% [2] this year.
Identity fraud is one of the UK’s fastest growing crimes. Recently a North East businessman was one of three identity fraudsters jailed for launching a decade-long scam which netted them more than £1m by churning out applications for benefits, credit and store cards hidden in a derelict house in Sheffield. [3]
Jim Watson, managing director of Shred Easy a confidential data destruction expert, wants to highlight the dangers of exposing confidential data online and hopes to raise awareness of how to safely shop:
“As online purchasing becomes more fashionable, and the recession takes hold, web users must be more vigilant than ever of fraudsters. Thieves who steal personal details like bank numbers can transfer money out of your account in seconds and manufacture fake documentation.
“When uploading personal information always:
• Check there’s a pad lock symbol at the top of the website
• Make sure the web links starts with ‘https’
• Install anti virus protection on your computer
• Regularly change your passwords
• Never reply to emails from banks asking for personal details
• Destroy any written evidence of passwords.”
Each year, identity fraud in the UK costs more than £2.7 billion and affects over 1.8 million people, according to new figures from the National Fraud Authority (NFA). [4]
www.shredeasy.com