UK online retail 'to sustain double-digit growth over the next 5 years'

The study, from Forrester, looks at the future of eCommerce in Europe.

Forrester projects that online retail across 17 of the largest EU markets in Western Europe will hit €114 billion by 2014 and that 190 million Europeans will shop online by 2014 (up from 141 million today).

Online retail in Western Europe will grow at about 11 percent a year, slightly ahead of the UK and the US, two mature markets.

Forrester’s forecast shows a distinct divide between the more mature markets of Northern European countries, and the still emerging online retail markets in Southern European nations.

The Forrester forecast is based in part on a survey of nearly 26,000 European consumers and is being released in conjunction with a similar forecast for online retail in the US, where growth rates over the next five years will hit 10 percent annually.

“Much of the overall retail sector’s growth in both the US and the EU over the next five years will come from the Internet,” said Forrester Research Vice President and Principal Analyst Sucharita Mulpuru. “To maximize that growth, eBusiness professionals will have to help enable a multichannel strategy that responds to consumers’ increased desire to hop between the offline and online worlds and their increasing mobile and social behaviors. The retail innovators over the next five years will demonstrate customer enablement across all touchpoints, not just via a PC-based Web browser.”

Highlights regarding online retail in the UK:

• UK online retail will hit €40 billion by 2014 and the number of online shoppers in Britain will increase from 31 million to 40 million in that time.

• 48 percent of UK consumers use the Net to make a monthly online purchase – that’s the highest number in Europe, with the European average being 32 percent.

• Leading UK retailers like Argos and Next Retail have integrated their channels in search of a seamless cross-channel customer experience to help drive substantial sales growth.

Western European Online Retail Forecast, 2009-2014:

• Increased online tenure, improved access, and greater promotion by retailers will drive the number of online shoppers in Europe from 141 million in 2009 to 190 million by 2014. The average spend per online shopper will rise from €483 in 2009 to €601 in 2014.

• Books, event tickets, and clothing are the top three categories purchased online in the majority of Western Europe.

• Among the three largest EU markets, online retail will grow at a 10 percent CAGR over the next five years in the UK; 9 percent in Germany; and 13 percent in France.

“There is a clear divide between the countries of Northern and Southern Europe regarding online retail adoption,” said Forrester Research Vice President and Research Director Patti Freeman Evans. “While nearly half of UK residents regularly make a purchase online, a mere 10 percent of online Spaniards and 11 percent of online Italians do so today. Still, with compound annual growth rates approaching 20 percent in markets like Spain, emerging European eCommerce markets are poised for a vigorous period of growth.”

http://www.forrester.com/consumerdata/forecastview.

www.forrester.com.

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